Warning on Italy if the security measures soften

The IMEDD warns the Italian Government, regions, population and the World Health Organization of a risk of a new peak of covid19 in Italy if the security measures and strict containment are not maintained as previously implemented.

Here are the facts:

  • Last week the Italian Government gave a possibility of autonomy of decision to the regions in order to take measures to face the epidemic of covid19, while still keeping the national framework for security.
  • Since, some Italian regions officials have started saying that they would like a differentiated re-opening of certains parts of Italy, based also on certain economic activities.
  • On the 30th of March, the Italian Ministry for Security announced that, due to the pressure of the parents, the Italian Government authorizes to soften a little bit the lockdown, allowing shorts walks around the house with the children, or even jogging around the house.

Today, 1st of April in Italy, the situation is the following.
For two days only, we start seeing the very first positive effects of the strict lockdown at home, as the number of cases per day now reaches 4000 (it was easily over 5000 before). It means that the contamination starts to be mastered (in number of new cases), and even still, it’s too early to say it for sure. At least 7 days of decrease or stabilization at an inferior level than before could confirm the data observed today.

If confirmed, it would mean that Italy could only be reaching its stabilization/decrease phase in the contamination (new cases).
Italy still has a high number of deads per day which still shows the dramatic effects of covid19.

The question is the following:
How can we talk about softening the Italian system of containment in those conditions? 4000 new cases per day.
We can take the experience of China and South Korea. They both waited to reach nearly 0 new cases (but never succeeded), then they softened the measures. They now see the start of a new covid19 outbreak. Some doctors in China mentioned it last week and South Korea announced it a couple of days ago.

It has to be known that both China and South Korea started the new outbreak with only very few cases (around 13), and after a week South Korea counts 101 new cases. China does better, but still they don’t arrive to reach the 0 new cases during several consecutive days.

Talking about Italy, how can a decision of softening the system of containment can be taken when still having 4000 new cases per day? Softening the system is going backwards and will only contribute to a higher outbreak in 2 or 3 weeks time (period of transmission/incubation). How can the people be controled in who they meet if the measures are softened?

It is very understandable that the people in lockdown would like to take some fresh air, but it doesn’t make sense to authorize it (nor to talk about it) at this level of the epidemic in Italy.

A differenciated re-opening of the country for economic matters is not justified either at this moment of the crisis (except maybe for a very few big businesses that could provide online shops with deliveries at home: equipments for small home buildings, materials for the sewing, equipment for creative art, music instruments… just some activities that help the people live their everyday life at home).

The line for Italy should remain the following for the moment, at least until the end of April:

  • maintaining the strict lockdown at home
  • keeping the initial measures (food, essential)
  • keeping social distancing
  • avoiding walks or jogging
  • giving priority to the health issue
  • goal: reaching 0 new cases during several consecutive days

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Read all the IMEDD’s articles since the beginning of the covid19’s crisis in Italy:
http://www.imedd-group.com/en/category/who/

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