The IMEDD would like to invite the United Nations and the countries to clarify for their own populations the death rate by country (instead of global) to give full transparency on the real health impact of the coronavirus at this stage of the known information.
Since, the very first beginning of the epidemic in Italy, we were announced (from the experience of China) a quite low death rate (between 3,5% and 4%) that concerned only the own experience of China (as the world number of cases was only or mostly composed by China). Meanwhile, some other countries were contaminated and the data now show another tendency for the death rate, which is very alarming, especially on Italy and Spain.
After nearly a month of epidemic in Italy, we clearly see, that this global death rate was only driven by China, until Italy got contaminated, which increased the total number of cases studied and the death rate.
It means that informing on a world death rate doesn’t make sense. The death rate must be presented by country and on the following basis of calculation presented below and on what is surely known: the recoveries and the deaths.
The current cases are a supposition and they can’t enter the calculation because we don’t know what will happen.
Formula of calculation:
Death rate = Number of deaths / (Number of deaths + Number of recoveries).
This formula leads to the real death rate on what is known.
The table below presents in red the countries over 1000 deaths.
For China, Italy, Spain, Iran, the data are statistically reliable, so is their death rate.
If we apply the Italy death rate on the current cases for the data of the day, in a couple of weeks, 44% could be in the “column % of death”, meaning a potential number of 26 020 italians.
For the other countries, the statistics are not yet reliable and they will certainly be adjusted in the upcoming weeks due to their evolution.
Though, France and the U.S.A start to have their tendency. Both countries need to be followed with great care.
On the data of the day (22th of March), but it will change obviously as each day the numbers change, it can be predicted on the list of countries above a global human loss of 41 296 persons at least if the today trend is followed (13% of death rate on the current cases at world scale).
The IMEDD has been following the indicator of death rate considering this calculation since the 17th of March.
This is why the IMEDD shouts at the United Nations and the countries, because saying that the global death rate is 13% doesn’t mean it corresponds to the situation of each country and it contributes to underestimate the real situation and catastrophe of the coronavirus in each country.
In their way of informing their people, the countries minimize the death rate using the World Death Rate instead of their National Death Rate, they don’t contribute to the good information of the people, nor to their protection enough.
The Corporate Social Responsibility of the countries is committed and leads to a lack of transparency, which probably affects the public responses and the empowerment of the people to participate in this world public effort to eradicate the coronavirus in each country.
In Italy or France, people still keep going in the streets.
Do the United Nations and the countries think that the people would keep going out in Italy or France or elsewhere in the world, if they knew in bright awareness that if they catch the coronavirus, their chances to die are at 44% if you are in Italy? This number means that on a group of 10 persons who catch the disease, 4 or 5 will die from the coronavirus (nearly the half).
This information is very important to make the people aware about the risks of catching the disease, considering that the World Health Organization has mentioned in the early March, that 60% and 70% of the world population will catch the coronavirus.
Here below the global death rate confirmed by WorldDoMeters on the 22th of March, with the same method of calculation that the IMEDD used in this post to explain the situation: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Read all the IMEDD’s articles since the beginning of the covid19’s crisis in Italy: