The IMEDD made a research about the main countries that face the coronavirus crisis (in number of infected people), following the goal of bringing some early information to the decision makers in charge of the crisis management in the countries and the WHO.
SLOWING THE PROPAGATION OF THE VIRUS WHILE LIMITING THE HUMAN LOSSES
The research is made on the data provided for the day of the 3th March 2020.
The table below presents the data given by Worldometers for each country over 50 cases of coronavirus.
Explanation of the table.
- Red: The United States with the highest rate of death of the world.
- Orange: The countries with a medium/high rate of death (not number of deaths): China, Iran, Italy.
- Yellow: The countries with a medium/low rate of death: Japan, Hong-Kong, France, Spain.
- Blue: the lowest rate of death of the world: South Korea.
- White: The countries with no death.
What information can we learn from this table?
- Over 2000 cases of coronavirus, the rate of death reaches between 3 and 4%.
- Between 2000 cases and 500 cases, the rate of death reaches between 2 and 3%.
- Between 500 cases and 100 cases, the rate of death reaches between 2 and 0%.
Slowing the penetration of the coronavirus in the countries is the only way to limit the rate of death, therefore acting in the very early stage to prevent the spreading is very important.
FOCUS ON THE UNITED STATES: THE HIGHEST RATE OF DEATH: 7%
The United States have the highest rate of death of the world on the 3th of March although the country is still in the phase of the early penetration of the coronavirus.
The IMEDD would like to attract the attention of the U.S authorities on the data of the rate of death in the U.S, which is much higher than the other countries. Some measures of travel ban from/to China and Italy have already been taken by the U.S Government a couple of days ago, though the number of cases increases with a higher rate of death than in other countries.
The U.S.A should investigate on the components of this 7% rate of death. There should be a common data (maybe the elderly people) that would explain this rate. By investigating now on the “why of this 7% rate of death”, it should be possible for the U.S Government to identify the reason and detect how to prevent the people at risk, maybe by implementing special measures to protect the concerned Americans (like local measures of quarantine, testing…).
The United States are still in the early stage of the propagation of the coronavirus. As the common idea is to slow down the epidemic of coronavirus, mastering the rate of death by adopting some measures of early prevention seems to be the most appropriate way to act.
FOCUS ON SOUTH KOREA: THE LOWEST RATE OF DEATH: 0,6%
South Korea presents the lowest rate of death of the world, though the number of cases is high: 5621 on this day.
This low rate of death asks questions. Could it happen, in some way, that…
- … the level of the healthcare structure in South Korea could have a positive impact on the low rate of death?
- … South Korea implements or uses special health or public measures to limit their rate of death to a low level?
Some discussions should be undertaken to better understand the way South Korea organizes its health structure reaction to the spreading and curing of the coronavirus. With a very low rate of death, South Korea must have implemented some measures that the other countries don’t do or maybe, not enough. Considering its very low rate of death, maybe, South Korea should share more the measures they implemented in order to limit the lethal effects of the coronavirus at global scale.
FOCUS ON ITALY AND IRAN
Those two countries are in full bloom of coronavirus, exactly in the same proportion.
The best for those two countries is to maintain the highest health and safety measures, following the goal of slowing the speed of the propagation of the coronavirus and its effects on the populations and the children (it is now known that the children can have and transmit the virus). The best measures to reduce the speed of the propagation are implementing telework (for the parents who can) and the on-line school for the children during the time of the epidemic.
In Italy, the schools in certain regions have been closed for two weeks, which was, from far, the safest measure to adopt, though it’s quite a long time without education for the children. Considering that the maximum duration of incubation for the coronavirus can reach, at most up, to 27 days (and that it’s not proven yet that the disease can’t be caught twice neither), the Italian on-line school should be organized from now, in order to ensure the continuity of education for the children, that by the way, would ensure the Italian authorities not to find the children hanging around in the streets in a period of health crisis with a quite unknown virus, no vaccine yet and the risk of being over-passed in the healthcare system.
Therefore, the implementation of the on-line school helps the safety for the children and the implementation of telework for the families who can do it.
FOCUS ON FRANCE, SPAIN AND GERMANY
Those three countries present a particularity. It seems that they tend to master the increase of the number of their new cases. As an example, France rapidly reached 191 cases of coronavirus, then the number of new cases has now been stagnated for two days even though still in a small increase. Though, the French government keeps speaking about the risks of propagation and a potential increase of the cases, that would lead to declare the “Phase 3: the epidemic and the free movement of the coronavirus on the French territory”.
The question is: what France, Spain and Germany do to master so well the slowing of the coronavirus in their countries compared to Italy, which is hardly concerned with its high number of cases?
The information is important to know because some other countries like Italy and Iran see the number of cases of coronavirus increase more and more each day (as well as their numbers of deaths). Maybe, some measures taken in France, Spain and Germany could help some other countries in the slowing of their own propagation of the virus.
France, Spain and Germany are leading countries. They should inform and communicate more towards the International media, so their measures for the slowing of the penetration of the coronavirus can be largely spread in all the countries, for the populations to be informed.
It must be recalled that the coronavirus outbreak spreads worldwide, and each little good initiative of the countries (information, data sharing, experiences, prevention, safety…) is important to share with the other countries, the goal being to limit the human losses at the global scale.
FOCUS ON THE ON-LINE SCHOOL
The IMEDD calls the attention of the countries to take the safest measures for the children and families in this period of health crisis (as Italy did with the closure of the schools at the very first beginning).
The scale of 500 cases in a country (much lower for the micro-nations) seems to be the first appropriate moment to start to organize the closure of the schools, while ensuring continuity of education for the children, meaning the implementation of the on-line school. Implementing the on-line school straight away facilitates the implementation of telework for the parents who can do it.
In this period of sanitary crisis, the role of the countries is to facilitate the organization of the populations who can easily do prevention by staying at home, while keeping education and work (as the continuity is necessary for both school/work). Then, the countries can focus on those who could be more exposed and protect them with prevention measures. Indeed, there is no good reason today not to declare the on-line school and telework considering the risks of propagation announced by the researches at International and the already known and lived experiences in some countries of the world.
Here are below two good examples used by France and the U.S.A (in Italy) concerning the implementation of the on-line school.
In the cluster areas, the children experience the on-line school (120 schools and 35 000 children in the department of Oise are concerned).
1) The French Government and the French Department of Education guarantees to ensure the continuity of their mission of education and the state during the time of the sanitary crisis, with the initiative “Ma Classe à la Maison” (My classroom at home). Below is the official announcement of the French Government: declaration saying that the Department of Education is ready to ensure the continuity of education through on-line tools in case of higher propagation of the coronavirus: https://www.education.gouv.fr/coronavirus-covid-19-note-aux-redactions-289400
2) As presented in the video of the French Children who test the virtual class, the parents feel safer to know their children continue their education at home thanks to virtual schools. Temporizing the effects of this sanitary crisis for the families is presented as an important point and the on-line school is a good solution to minimize the effects of this troubled period for the education of the children:
U.S.A (in Italy)
- In the region Veneto
The region Veneto in Italy has been declared as one of the areas of contamination due to the coronavirus. The schools have been closed for two weeks by the Italian Government and the President of the Region, since the very first beginning of the expansion of the virus in Italy. The U.S Army based in Veneto already implemented the on-line school for the American Children. As presented in the video below, the teacher says that with this way of on-line education, she already sees that “some children who didn’t act that much in class act more”:
Read all the IMEDD’s articles since the beginning of the covid19’s crisis in Italy: